Nick Hodge – Commodities Supercycle Simply In Countertrend Move Due To Economic Contraction
Nick Hodge, of Digest Publishing and editor of Foundational Profits and Hodge Family Office, joins us for a wide ranging discussion on the current macroeconomic environment, central banks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and precious metals. We start off reviewing the nature of the current bear market in general US equities, and global equity markets, and if we’ll still see a larger capitulation event. Nick makes the point that with so much market noise it is important to remember that the Economic Cycle is larger than the Fed and any short-term developments, and we are currently in an economic contraction.
We shift over to the commodities next, where the recent pullback in many raw materials is simply a counter-trend corrective move within the larger commodities supercycle that kicked off in 2020. We review the compelling themes of electrification and decarbonization and how those have allowed commodities like lithium, uranium, and copper to have hit new highs this year with plenty more upside in the years to come.
Next we pivot over to get Nick’s thoughts on the precious metals, and he offers his approach to investing in gold, silver, and the PM mining stocks. He outlines how he evaluates the senior and junior mining stocks, and what kinds of things he likes to see as well as red flag warnings within the management teams, share structures, and jurisdiction risk. We wrap up by reviewing how Nick and his business partner help investors through their services over at Digest Publishing.
Oil Major Earnings Will Reignite The Windfall Taxes Debate
By Irina Slav – Oct 26, 2022
“Despite weaker oil prices during the third quarter, the oil industry is still booking strong financial results. According to some, this is “awkward” because it is happening during a time of economic hardship. Besides being awkward, however, Big Oil’s profits will likely draw more political pressure from desperate governments.”
“Bloomberg reported this week that, based on data it had compiled, the collective profits of Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies for the last quarter would come in at $50.7 billion.”
“It’s definitely awkward,” Abhi Rajendran, a research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told Bloomberg. “These companies won’t want to be beating their chest over strong business results that are coming at the expense of consumers and a difficult economic environment.”
“This is an interesting take, given that in 2020, when Big Tech raked the cash in thanks to the lockdowns—also at the expense of consumers forced to stay at home, nobody really blamed Amazon or Apple, or Microsoft for it.”
“Yet the oil industry has a special place in the heart of almost every Western politician, with the energy transition still high on the official agenda even as the cost of renewables soars and Europe returns to coal to survive the winter…”
Stock Market Today: Dow Climbs as Caterpillar, Boeing Rally Offset Meta Meltdown
Yasin Ebrahim – Investing.com – Oct 27, 2022
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) fell nearly 25% after reporting third-quarter results that missed on the bottom line and were an “absolute train wreck,” Wedbush said in a note. The results reflect the “pervasive digital advertising doldrums ahead for Zuckerberg & Co. as they make the risky and head scratching bet on the metaverse,” it added.
Meta’s results arrived just a day after Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) reported underwhelming quarterly results. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) close the curtain on big tech earnings this week, with reports after market closes.
Hi E$x, Caterpillar and Boeing are stalwarts of the old economy, maybe just maybe this world is thinking about righting itself. Spare me The Meta Universe! DT
Freight Industry Braces For Ugly Fourth Quarter
By ZeroHedge – Oct 27, 2022
– Peak shipping season for trucking and rail transport is underway.
– Weak ocean container volumes from July to September suggest demand may be poor through the holiday season.
– The trucking industry has been struggling since the first quarter and will likely end the year on a down note.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Freight-Industry-Braces-For-Ugly-Fourth-Quarter.html